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The Tarot of Teaching, Part 4: Make a Prediction

The Tarot of Teaching deck is a creative tool designed to enrich and energize the structure of a class period. It divides the flow of a lesson into three key stages, each represented by a different category of cards: Starting Our Journey (beginning of class), Along the Way (middle of class), and Reaching Our Destination (end of class). Each card within these categories offers a unique teaching tip aligned with its intended time in the class period, making each session more engaging, organized, and impactful.


Need to catch up? Check out Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3.


What is predicting? As a learning recall strategy, it falls between guessing (low confidence—think “guess which card I’ll pick from the deck”) and pretesting (a more formal approach that assumes some pre-existing knowledge). When predicting, learners generate a response with some confidence and experience, though not complete certainty.

James Lang, in Small Teaching, describes predicting as asking students to “try before they are ready.” This is a fundamental aspect of learning something new. It turns out that asking students to predict is a simple yet powerful tool. Research shows that when students are asked to make a prediction, they learn the material more effectively.

For example, predict how this blog entry will conclude. This is more than a guess but less structured than a pretest. You might consider past blog entries or reflect on how this topic typically wraps up.


Why Does Prediction Work So Well?

  1. It taps into natural learning processes. Neuroscientists have found that most of our learning occurs through prediction-feedback cycles. From taking our first steps to learning how to drive, we master fundamental skills through this process. Introducing academic content through similar cycles leverages this well-established learning mechanism.

  2. It highlights knowledge gaps. When asked to make a prediction, learners quickly recognize gaps or errors in their understanding. Thoughts like “I have no idea how to answer this” or “That was totally wrong” help students identify areas for improvement.

  3. It structures learning .Prediction acts as a roadmap. For instance, a pre-test provides an example of the final learning outcome, guiding students toward essential topics and themes in the course.


The Element of Surprise

Dr. Garvin Brod suggests that prediction’s power lies in its ability to create surprise. When students exert mental effort to make a prediction, discovering the correct answer—especially when unexpected—enhances attention and strengthens memory encoding.

But what if students predict incorrectly? Will they remember the wrong information? Research shows that making incorrect predictions doesn’t negatively impact future recall. Studies reveal that students who didn’t make any prediction at all performed worse than those who guessed incorrectly (see Kornell & Vaughn, 2016). The key takeaway? Encouraging predictions enhances learning—whether or not students are right.


Tips for Using Predictions in the Classroom

In Small Teaching, Lang offers practical strategies for incorporating prediction:

  1. Stay conceptual. Since students haven’t learned the material yet, focus on broad ideas and key concepts. Frame questions so that existing knowledge helps guide their predictions.

  2. Provide fast feedback .Don’t leave students in suspense! Reveal the correct answer promptly—by the end of class at the latest—to complete the prediction-feedback cycle. While incorrect predictions don’t harm learning, not receiving the correct information does.

  3. Embed reflection. Encourage students to reflect on their thought process. Ask them to identify gaps or mistakes in their predictions and connect their answers to prior knowledge. This deepens understanding and strengthens learning connections.


Why Predictions Work for Instructors, Too

One major benefit of using predictions is enhancing learning without adding to grading time. Students put in the effort to predict, the instructor provides the answer, and students self-assess. Since predictions involve unlearned material, grading them wouldn’t be fair—making this a low-stakes, high-impact tool.

Predictions can be simple or complex. Use them as quick in-class “brain teasers” (e.g., a show of hands or a poll) or weave them into larger frameworks, such as a case study or a misconception explored throughout the lecture. Either way, when you ask students to make a prediction and reflect on it, you’re actively boosting their learning.


A Little Incentive…

This post ends with a special Easter Egg: Try out a prediction activity in one of your classes and email the CEL a few sentences about your experience. We’ll add two points to your CEL Leaderboard! (Terms and Conditions: One redemption per faculty member. Offer valid through April 15, 2025.)


References


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